How deep is the Osun APC membership plunge?

How deep is the Osun APC membership plunge?

By Adebisi Ifamakinde

I was surfing the internet recently when I came across a finding that touched on the significant slump in the membership of the main opposition in Osun state, the All Progressives Congress (APC). The finding, which was the culmination a survey conducted by the Democracy Polling Agency (DPA), a non-governmental organization affiliated to a top university in Nigeria, indicating that the Osun APC has lost at least 45 percent of members in recent time.

That is staggering, and out of curiosity, I look deeper to understand the finding more. The interesting thing in the finding was that the 45 percent membership slump attributed to the Osun APC was actually from the Ileri-Oluwa tendency of the party. For any observer of things in the Osun APC in recent time will understand that the party is sectionalized along the Omuluabi and Ileri-Oluwa tendency.

While Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, a former Governor in Osun state, leads the Omoluabi tendency of the Osun APC, the Ileri-Oluwa faction goes to the current Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola. In the finding by the DPA, the Omoluabi tendency has about 45 percent of the old APC members in Osun, while the Ileri-Oluwa faction controls less than the remaining 60 percent.

It was from this 60 percent membership hold by the Ileri-Oluwa tendency, the DPA noted in its finding, that no fewer than 45 percent members had left. From the surface, this will seem impossible, but following events in recent times, provide more clarity on the finding by the DPA. Lately, APC members in Osun are leaving in droves to the ruling party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the defection has become so rampant that one may easily lost count.

Starting from August to this moment, APC members across the state have moved to the PDP. From Ikire to Iwo, Gbongan to Ila, Ife to Osogbo, Ede to Modakeke, APC members in Osun seemingly no longer find the platform appealing to further their political participation as they pitch tent elsewhere, most especially the PDP.

According to the DPA survey, the APC has seen defection of members in 27 local governments in the state within the spate of three months. But a deeper look, scouring the pages of social media for news and pictures of defection, will show that the defection from the APC may have crossed all the 30 local governments, including the area office. That is huge and as inquisitive mind, I try to interrogate the development further.

Of a truth, politicians moving to the ruling party in our political environment is not usual, but the rate at which those of the APC extraction no longer find their platform attractive is intriguing. This much was highlighted by the DPA in its finding, attributing the development to the "impressive performance of the Osun Governor (Adeleke), the rigidity of the state APC leadership to reconciliation moves, the slow response of Mr Oyetola to discontinue his guber bid, the worsening economic climate and series disasters that had befell the party leadership in some local governments."

No doubt that Governor Adeleke has done well in the two years he has been in the saddle, effectively delivering for the people across sectors. The disposition of the Osun APC leadership to reconciliation appears to weigh heavily on the reason why the platform is being deserted by members across board. It would be recalled that crisis, which created the Omoluabi tendency in the build up to the 2022 governorship election, played some role in its eventual ouster from power in the state.

Between then and now, the crisis had grown bigger and makes APC platform a lot weaker, significantly impacting its chance of challenging a formidable platform as the Osun PDP. To make matter worse, the Osun APC under the guidance of Oyetola, suspended Aregbesola from the party and recommended further disciplinary action to its national headquarters, finally blocking the path to any possible reconciliation.

Many observers believe the attitude of the APC doesn't inspire hope of any chance in future elections, basically because the platform is not strong enough to stand a chance in any competitive election. While it is true that some PDP members, notably Dotun Babayemi, joined the APC, they have not been able to produce the numbers that could make up for the defection from the main opposition party. In fact, some of the members who followed Babayemi to the APC, like a former Iwo LGEA Secretary, Mr. Augustine, had since returned to the PDP with followers.

The balance is definitely scaled against the Osun APC and only a large scale manipulation of the electoral process could tilt the balance to it favour. Already, APC members have continued to boast in this line, touting interference of the election in the 2026 governorship by the Bola Tinubu-led federal government as its path to return to power. This will be a dangerous scheme as it may bring back the ugly memory of the 2018 election heist, which makes a larger number of Osun populace not to recognise Oyetola as their leader until his eventual ouster.

Away from this, is the observed challenge that the DPA's finding reveal lies ahead for the PDP in Osun state. According to the organisation, the Osun PDP will be seriously tested by its ability to manage the influx of membership coming its way. "While PDP membership has increased by more than 50 percent in 2024 alone, there is a noticeable rift between old and new members," the DPA noted.

Knowing politics and the recurring feature for struggle for space, it is very clear that as much as the defections to the Osun PDP should be an advantage, but it may turnaround to be a disadvantage. What happens rest on the party's leadership handling of membership, ensuring that both old and new members can cohabit together and pursue the collective goals of the party.

In all, the DPA's appraisal of political parties in Osun is a step in the right direction, as it not only provides a detailed understanding of the political environment in the state, but also help political parties to realise their standings and guide actions.This is a welcome development and more of such fact-base engagement from organisations with no political affiliations are needed to further deepen democracy, most especially in Osun state.

● Adebisi Ifamakinde writes from Gidigbo quarters in Iwo, Osun state

ADELEKE REMAINS POSITIVE TO EXPLORE, EXPLOIT OSUN'S BUSINESS LANDSCAPE - REV. BUNMI JENYO

ADELEKE REMAINS POSITIVE TO EXPLORE, EXPLOIT OSUN'S BUSINESS LANDSCAPE - REV. BUNMI JENYO

Osun State Governor, Sen. Dr. Ademola Jackson Nurudeen Adeleke remains positive to his commitment to explore and exploit the commercial and industrial landscape of Osun State for the benefit of all and sundry.

This assertion was made by the Honourable Commissioner for Commerce and Industry, Rev. Bunmi Jenyo, at the Osun State Pavilion, while speaking with newsmen immediately after the opening of the 2024 Lagos International Trade Fair (LITF) on the 1st of November.

The 2024 edition of the Lagos International Trade Fair kicked off on Friday, with over 3,500 exhibitors from more than 15 countries, registered to participate.

The Fair with the theme, “Connecting Businesses, Creating Value”, is organised annually by the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), and is expected to run from November 1 to 10.

Declaring open the 10-day event at the Tafawa Balewa Square (TBS), the Lagos State Governor, Mr. Babajide Sanwo-Olu, represented by his deputy, Dr. Obafemi Hamzat, said it was aimed at fostering economic growth by connecting businesses.

While speaking, Osun's Commerce Commissioner who expressed his delight, said Governor Adeleke's administration is fully prepared to turn Osun State from Civil Servants' state to a fully industrialised one.

According to him, "Nigeria has a great future and great potential to turn into a modern and industrialised country. Nigeria has a large productive population and market for movement of goods and services, which can strengthen the commercial and industrial sectors".

"The South West Region of Nigeria must prioritize, develop and implement strategies to use the opportunities in manufacturing and industrialisation in different sectors and increase the competitiveness of the local products in their various states", he said.

The Commissioner said the Governor Ademola Adeleke has put an investment-driven agenda in the front burner of his administration, making a remarkable progress in improving the standard of living of all Osun people.

According to him, "Osun State, being a commercial and industrial hub in the south west region is not left behind in attracting investments in the commercial and industrial sectors. As you all know, Osun State is endowed with abundant natural and agricultural resources that are yet to be fully harnessed".

He lauded Governor Adeleke for being a passionate leader who is tireless in creating wealth opportunities for his people.

"The government of Sen. Dr. Ademola Jackson Nurudeen Adeleke has been making giant efforts to improve the living standard of our people, especially in the commercial and industrial sectors as well as MSME sub-sector and have undertaken several initiatives aimed at building human capacities, stimulating employment opportunities, wealth creation and economic growth".

"Manufacturing and Industry are very fundamental for overall economic growth and poverty reduction. This is one of the main objectives being pursued by the administration of Governor Ademola Adeleke".

"The Osun State government has improved tremendously in the ease of doing business in the State, through provision of incentives, interventions and an enabling environment to boost economic activities. As we speak, Osun State is open for business and investments from across the globe", he concluded.

Governor Adeleke Advocates Unity at Opening of South West PDP Secretariat

NEWS RELEASE

IBADAN - 02/11/2024 - Osunstate.gov.ng

Governor Ademola Adeleke of Osun State has urged unity and harmony within the Southwest chapter of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) to deepen and widen the electoral fortunes of the party.

Speaking at the commissioning of the South West Secretariat of the party at Ibadan which was named after the late zonal Vice Chairman, Hon Soji Adagunodo, Governor Adeleke appealed for closing of ranks in memory of the former party leader.

According to the Governor, “the significance of today's event is the clarion call for unity and deeper brotherhood among PDP at home.and abroad. We must forget the past of division and unite for the good of our dear party.

“It is better for us to fight each other inside Government House than outside. We must refocus attention on building strong administrative operational structures.

“With that, we can deploy for elections, retain our existing states and even expand our reach across the six zones of the federation”, the Governor told the commissioning attended by top leaders of the PDP including members of the National Working Committee.

Noting his mixed feelings at the event, the leader of PDP in Osun state said the gathering raised two feelings in him, both of which he described as significant.

“First is that we are opening a major administrative hub for the party in the South West at a very critical point in our national life.

“Second is that the naming of the Secretariat is after my late brother, Soji Adagunodo, a top political leader and ally from my state before his transition.

“I am therefore in a sober mood because our brother is not here with us to witness the honour being done to his memory. I pray God Almighty grant him eternal rest.”, he noted at the event

Speaking at the commissioning, the host, Governor Seyi Makinde reiterated Governor Adeleke’s admonition for unity within the PDP ,noting the presence of warring parties of the past at the commissioning as a sign that the party is now one in the zone.

He advised that leaders and members of the party should forget the bickering of the past and join hands to expand the party's victory in future contests, hailing Governor Adeleke for his magnanimity and sense of responsibility.

The new zonal Secretariat contains state of the art facilities for administrative and operational activities of the PDP for the zone.

Signed: Mallam Olawale Rasheed, Spokesperson to the State Governor.

ADELEKE'S GOVERNMENT READY TO ACCELERATE INDUSTRIALIZATION IN OSUN - REV. BUNMI JENYO

The Honourable Commissioner for Commerce and Industry in Osun State, Rev. Bunmi Jenyo has highlighted numerous efforts of the Ademola Adeleke led government to accelerate the pace of industrialization in Osun State.

This was contained in his goodwill message at the 41st annual general meeting, conference and exhibition of Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Oyo, Osun, Ondo and Ekiti States branch at MAN Secretariat in Jericho Ibadan on Thursday.

The Commissioner also charged the South West governments to "tap into the countless opportunities in different sectors such as Tourism, ICT, Agriculture, Automobile Production, Assembling Components and services, Technology, Industrial and Business Machinery, Chemicals, Agro-Processing, Mining, Textile and Leather etc" to develop the zone.

The Commissioner is of the opinion that the South West has the resources required to build and develop its industrial potential and that Governor Ademola Jackson Nurudeen Adeleke is prepared to make Osun the epicenter of commercial, industrial and economic activities in the South West Region of Nigeria.

According to the Commissioner, "the government of Sen. Dr. Ademola Jackson Nurudeen Adeleke has been making great efforts to improve the standard of living of our people, especially in the MSME sector and have undertaken several initiatives aimed at building human capacities, stimulating employment opportunities, wealth creation and economic growth in Osun State".

"Manufacturing and Industries are very fundamental for overall economic growth and poverty reduction. This is one of the main objectives being pursued by the administration of Sen. Ademola Jackson Nurudeen Adeleke. It is our opinion that a robust manufacturing industry can provide well-paid jobs for a large number of skilled workers, increase average household incomes, boost domestic demand, stabilize businesses and contribute to innovation and diversification".

"The Industrial Investment Summit organized recently in Osun State accommodated various exhibitors from within and outside Osun State in all sectors of the economy.This was done to promote production and use of Made-in-Osun and Made-in-Nigeria Products to improve the economy of our dear State and nation. We, as a region and people should always think of Nigeria, buy and use Nigerian products to grow our country".

"From the successful conduct of the Industrial Investment Summit, Osun is recognized in Nigeria as one of the most investment-friendly State. We are hopeful this will open up the industrial and business landscape of Osun and many investments will spring up in the State within the shortest time possible".

"The State, through the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, is always ready to support investments by providing an enabling environment for businesses to thrive. I want to thank you for giving me the opportunity to speak at this event and I would like to inform you that the Government and good people of Osun State are expecting you to come and invest in the State of the Living Spring", the Commissioner concluded.